Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nicolas Heiden

30th • 3-2-1

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Italo Molina (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marcus Karlsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mikael Vedemar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Péter Kökény (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Bryant (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Rickard Ekermann (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.23
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.79
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.09
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Oscar Ålund

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Emilia Mattsson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesper Lindström (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andreas Björnsson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.36
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Italo Molina

dropped • 2-0-1

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Nicolas Heiden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jan Eid (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jarrett Yu (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.63

Christofer Lindholm

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Haugmo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nic Palm (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rickard Ekermann (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.