Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Dennis Fröberg

3rd • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jan Eid (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Klas Bergholtz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Joakim Gustafsson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alex Moynagh (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Niklas Astner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jacob Trossing (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.65
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.10
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Jarrett Yu

38th • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Niklas Astner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Elliot Broadley (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Italo Molina (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Nielsen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Péter Kökény (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Andrej Erdelsky (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.14
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Leonardo Baranzano

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Frej Karlsson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jordy Pereira (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Niklas Astner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Haugmo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Teo Rutisson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.26
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.35
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Fredrik Bill

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicklas Holm (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mikael Vedemar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Max Harudd Segerstein (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.