National Championship 2025 - Sweden - Kayo, Armed and Dangerous (CC)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nic Palm

13th • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Martin Bergström (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christofer Lindholm (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Johnny Vretlind (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Albert Schütt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Joakim Gustafsson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.49
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Daniel Bryant

37th • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.4

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rickard Ekermann (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Petersson-Rebelo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Haugmo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Frej Karlsson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nicolas Heiden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Elias Ahlström (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.69
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.67

Jonathan Magnusson

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Bergström (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Nielsen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicklas Holm (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Max Harudd Segerstein (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.