Riptide, Lurker of the Deep at National Championship 2025 - Sweden
Riptide, Lurker of the Deep
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
14th • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Péter Kökény (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thomas Sandén (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nic Palm (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Niklas Astner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Mikael Lundberg (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Thomas Haugmo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.