National Championship 2025 - Sweden - Azalea, Ace in the Hole (CC)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mikael Lundberg

5th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Fredrik Maxe (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Stefan Persson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emilia Mattsson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nicklas Holm (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Johnny Vretlind (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Albert Schütt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.20
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.65
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87
R8	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.02
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

John Bergström

15th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Magnusson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Haugmo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrej Erdelsky (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Albert Schütt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Max Harudd Segerstein (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Paul Petersson-Rebelo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.10
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Lewis Day

26th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Klas Bergholtz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Fredrik Maxe (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andreas Björnsson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jan Eid (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Markus Jonsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Nicklas Holm (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.05
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R9	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.