Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
19th • 3-3-0
17%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
3.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Elliot Broadley (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Markus Jonsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62
Round 3: Win vs Joel Halvars (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57
Round 9: Win vs Jesper Lindström (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.