Pro Tour Amsterdam 2024 - Kayo, Armed and Dangerous (CC)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

29 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Jose Iglesias Lopez

15th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

5.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hilmi Halim (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Yuanji Li (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nikola Kramarić (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Pheano Black (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Kevin Zänker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.31
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.15
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.73
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.17
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.65
R14	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Francesco Giorgio

34th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs nicolas Jamoulle (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Garrett Shustarich (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Bun Ar (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.16
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.10
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.40
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.22
R11	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.59
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R14	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Peng Joon

99th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

5.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elly Bird (Unknown)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Cagle (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniele Bigagli (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs David Yau (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Joshua Tavares (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Emad Kashy (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.16
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.21
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.53

Alejandro Ziegenhirt

49th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maciej Graszek (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Zänker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Adam Urban (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

75:25

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Austin Redington (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.16
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R14	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.70

KOHEI TAKANO

134th • 2-6-0

12%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Markovič (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Johnny Khong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nghia Tran (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Victor Brøcker (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Tom Hazell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Eric Gaudreault (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

12% (1/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.15
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.72
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Joshua Tavares

dropped • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Savinien Castel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ricardo Rua (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ross Newson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Peng Joon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.47
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Marcos Vassão

dropped • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Cohen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Peter Markovič (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Piotr Krzempek (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.94
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.45

Ross Newson

dropped • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Martin Krentz (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Tavares (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.90
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ania Grudnowska

dropped • 2-2-0

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ivan Teo (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Matecki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eric Gaudreault (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.26

Carlos Gutiérrez González

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs James Tague (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dziugas Skrupskelis (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gaia Enomoto (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.10

Florian Koksch

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Αναστάσιος Παπαγιάννης (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gary White (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Reyes (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

George Chew

dropped • 2-2-0

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Weißling (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zachary Wallach (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.36
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.82
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Ian Holland

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Bonde (Unknown)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Αναστάσιος Παπαγιάννης (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nils Hauck (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.92
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Ian Porter

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Carlos Carrero (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Charles Dunn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 61:39

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Piotr Chudobinski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Oechsle (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.30
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Ilias Karamanis

dropped • 2-2-0

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Krstic (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas On (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Ferrara (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.09
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.45

Lorenzo Cavazzini

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs SEAN STELL (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sunny Yang (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Unknown)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Urban (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.72
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Melvin Chew

dropped • 2-2-0

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Chirulescu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Antonio Kutter (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.26

Niklas Bengtsson

dropped • 2-2-0

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nikos Tavoulareas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Cohen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Martin Hechtberger (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.31
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.94
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Pedro Ugioni

dropped • 2-2-0

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rui Carvalho (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Will Rea (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.09
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Austin Kim

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Chris Jones

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Yau (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ricardo Rua (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 32:68

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mateusz Zawieracz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.45

Damian van Beek

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nova Chan (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicolas CAMPIGLIA (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Greg Sutcliffe (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.76
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Evan Bridges

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Frederik Emil Hansen (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dziugas Skrupskelis (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 32:68

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Jonah Overholt

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mark Smith (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Justin Kinison

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ashley Chiu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Curtis Roth (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.65

Karan Gill

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kent O’Neal (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Bonde (Unknown)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Noah Beygelman

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul Mirande (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas On (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.45

Dziugas Skrupskelis

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carlos Gutiérrez González (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Matecki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Ximun LASTIRI

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Pennec (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nick McGrath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marcin Pelzner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Clément LOUBIERE (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.