Pro Tour Amsterdam 2024 - Dorinthea Ironsong (CC)

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yuto Suzuki

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Karan Gill (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Donovan van Beek (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daisuke Nakashima (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 49:51

20:80

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.60
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.59
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R12	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Daniel Johnson

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gus Enger (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Johnson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Martin Krentz

dropped • 1-2-1

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jake mccormack (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Yau (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ross Newson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Shahmir Samee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.37
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Draw	✓	0.49	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.