Kano, Dracai of Aether at Pro Tour Amsterdam 2024

Kano, Dracai of Aether

18 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Majin Bae

25th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

5.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Davide Rizzi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Easton Douglas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Maximilian Schmidt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Nick Butcher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

R14

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Chandler To (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.30
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.54
R14	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.75

Samuel Braben

90th • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.1

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ashley Chiu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 83:17

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Unknown)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jose Maria Mellado Becerra (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Victor Brøcker (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

R14

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Alexandros Argyriou (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.03
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.30
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.41
R14	CC	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jan Kučera

121st • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Boog (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs George Melissakis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

80:20

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Laurin Niehues (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 79:21

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R12	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R14	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.61

Jasper de Riet

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dominic Delmont (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Suciu Andrei (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

15:85

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Hugo Ribeiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.28
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.62
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-

Matthew Dilks

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maximilian Klein (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Frederik Emil Hansen (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ji Timm Lee (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Christian Hauck (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.41
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Filipe Lima Cardoso

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hugo Ribeiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Birgir Hrafn Buason (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Clark Jansen (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Samuel Braben (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.57
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Vincent Weinzierl

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Lorenzi (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas On (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tegan Smerdon (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Lucas Miranda (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.35
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Jimmy Niro Demers

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Fedir Kokhan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 83:17

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.26

Luigi Fontana

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Piotr Krzempek (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryosuke Urase (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Josep Giné (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Brenden Jones

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chandler To (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Reyes (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Win	✗	0.84	2.69

Mateusz Mazur

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonas Stoberock (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rob Catton (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Takumi Watanabe (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Robert Szary

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ricardo Rua (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Ryan Youngquist

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Easton Douglas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.07
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sebastian Spicher

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aleix Córdoba (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Tegan Smerdon

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chu Heng Eng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ben Dodd (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Yan Garito

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Bonde (Unknown)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexandros Argyriou (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Gary White

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Florian Koksch (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Liam Canning (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-

Rafael Boog

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jan Kučera (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Josep Giné (Unknown)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.