Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at Pro Tour Amsterdam 2024

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chandler To

39th • 4-4-0

25%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

4.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lewis Foulkes (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brenden Jones (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cameron Miller (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Feng (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Matt Rogers (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.52
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Win	✗	0.66	2.14
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.40
R14	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Eugene C

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Smith (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dexter Simmons (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 38:62

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Feeney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.98

Nicolas CAMPIGLIA

dropped • 0-3-1

75%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mark Henderson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Damian van Beek (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Draw	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.