Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Pro Tour Amsterdam 2024

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Finlay Shepherd

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Laurin Niehues (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 75:25

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Smith (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Viet Pham (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.48
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Aidan Barsony

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicolas CAMPIGLIA (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Rutkowski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.73
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Evan Dyck

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Léo Vézinet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hunter Blaes (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Maciej Kawończyk

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Colin Tang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 원률 신 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Bader (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.92

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.