Aurora, Shooting Star
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 8-1-0
100%
Meta
+3.3
Perf
4.3
Surp
3.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Garretson (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Justin Fryar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Paul White (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Joseph Schelling (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Simon Aguirre (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
100% (9/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
12th • 5-2-0
100%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christopher Rivera (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kyle Tamayo (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gabriel Smith (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Hemal Patel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 68:32
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 70% | Win |
13th • 5-2-0
100%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joseph Schelling (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Leo Loera (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Arnell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Paul White (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Rodrigo Martinez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jeremie Maurina (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Chase Osborne (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
32nd • 4-1-2
57%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs HUNTER WALTERS (Unknown)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dan Mui (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Colin Lapenotiere (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ashton Lynch (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Michael Richards (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tim Lee (Unknown)
Round 7: Win vs Sam Jacobs (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Draw |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Draw |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gavin Siegrist (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dustin Douglass (Unknown)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tim Lee (Unknown)
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.