Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Battle Hardened Houston: 2024
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
9th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Evan Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Francisco Zuniga (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs William Warnek (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs David Rogers (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jesus Montijo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Christopher Rivera (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kent Summerour (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Loss |
16th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs William Warnek (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Charles Castille (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dan Mui (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gabriel Smith (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jude Vergara (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Zak Cargin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Joseph Schelling (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Win |
29th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Victor Alexander Gomez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs JD Daclison (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jacob Lowrey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Johnathan Esquivel (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Claire Stanfield (Unknown)
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kyle Tamayo (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Anthony DeMeo (Unknown)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Emmanuel Barron (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Donovan Wilcox (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Robert Cutler (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jacob Fullingim (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Michael Sagor (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs josh hunt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Adrian Aucoin Jr (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Gomez (Unknown)
Round 4: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs JD Daclison (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs William Warnek (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Johnathan Esquivel (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Randall Robinson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hayden Christoffersen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs josh hunt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.