Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at Battle Hardened Houston: 2024

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jeremie Maurina

34th • 3-3-1

43%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hemal Patel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 26:74

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Lenshyn (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jose Badillo (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Phillips (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 28:72

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Draw vs Jude Vergara (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.15
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.49
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Draw	✗	0.28	-

Hayden Christoffersen

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ashton Lynch (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Claire Stanfield (Unknown)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hemal Patel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Klein (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Ramsey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.82
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Colton Branch

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Sagor (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.