Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Battle Hardened Houston: 2024
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
14th • 5-2-0
29%
Meta
+2.6
Perf
3.5
Surp
4.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Smith (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78
Round 3: Win vs Walker Roberts (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Rivera (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 19:81
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Sam Jacobs (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Michael Sagor (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.