Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
14th • 5-2-0
14%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
4.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Smith (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
Round 3: Win vs Walker Roberts (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Rivera (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 32:68
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Sam Jacobs (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24
Round 7: Win vs Michael Sagor (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.