Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened Houston: 2024
Dorinthea Ironsong
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
24th • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Donovan Wilcox (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 45:55
Round 2: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Elena Arnold (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ross Fontana (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.