Battle Hardened Houston: 2024 - Dash I/O (CC)

Dash I/O

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Simon Aguirre

2nd • 8-2-0

80%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.9

Surp

3.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alberto Reyes (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zak Cargin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Lancaster (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Claire Stanfield (Unknown)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Chase Osborne (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Rodrigo Martinez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Randall Robinson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Evan Bridges (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.33
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.48
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.57
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.63
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.86
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

John Booher

44th • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dan Mui (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gavin Siegrist (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Lancaster (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jun Russel Ibanez (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.44
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Michelle Wheatley

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Johnathan Esquivel (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dustin Douglass (Unknown)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Colvin (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 34:66

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alain Arduain (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.