Lexi, Livewire at Calling: Las Vegas

Lexi, Livewire

97 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yuki Lee Bender

1st • 14-2-0

100%

Meta

+4.9

Perf

6.9

Surp

6.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Reid (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesus Meraz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zach Bunn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Austin Kim (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Unknown)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs nathan lapham (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Matt MacLeod (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Eli Teed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jakob Allan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Easton Douglas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Ben Hannan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R16 CC

Round 16: Win vs Ben Hannan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (16/16 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.9 Wins (9.1 expected, 14 actual)

Surprise

6.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.04
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.15
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.21
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.26
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.37
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.69
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.67
R13	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.73
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.89
R15	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.96
R16	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90

Derek Anderson

5th • 11-3-0

86%

Meta

+3.6

Perf

6.2

Surp

5.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shereena Decano (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Jackson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Boudreaux (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Taylor Stuhr (Unknown)

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Braden Phillips (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Anthony Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Nathaniel Meserve (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tariq Patel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Edward Knight (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Nathaniel Meserve (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

86% (12/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.07
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.18
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.13
R7	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R8	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.93
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R10	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.80
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.52
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R14	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Naib Mobassir

5th • 11-3-0

93%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

6.4

Surp

5.6

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Amber Pennington (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Elrod (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tommy Anderson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael Berg (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joe Fisher (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Austin Chinn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ryan Mound (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Levi Rauch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jack Sandau (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

93% (13/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (7.7 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.03
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.13
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.26
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R9	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.38
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.70
R12	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.40
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R14	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Eli Teed

5th • 10-4-0

93%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

6.2

Surp

3.9

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Shope (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Jeffs (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Norris (Unknown)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alex Kelemen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mark Johnson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jenson Wilhelm (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lucas Ng (Unknown)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Shane Ginter (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Nathaniel Meserve (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

93% (13/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.04
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.08
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.21
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.21
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.36
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.22
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.80
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Edward Knight

9th • 10-3-0

100%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Liping Chao (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Harrison Timothy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wes Cothran (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Lau (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dylan Myers (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Brad Betschart (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Isaak Krut (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jenson Wilhelm (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Mark Johnson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (13/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.06
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.06
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.35
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.30
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.32
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.69
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.43
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Adrian Gebhart

10th • 10-3-0

100%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

5.9

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rodel Rodea (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Fox (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Towne (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cody Williams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joe Fisher (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs nathan lapham (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Levi Rauch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matthew Dilks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (13/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (7.1 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.09
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.16
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.21
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.39
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.27
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.48
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alex Knott

13th • 10-3-0

92%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

5.3

Surp

3.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryant Siders (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stephen Perez (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Charles Gilbert (Unknown)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs James Fox (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sean Elliott (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Cody Williams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Anthony Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

80:20

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Nathaniel Meserve (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Shane Ginter (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.07
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.15
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.22
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.46
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.17
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.47
R10	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.53
R11	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.27
R12	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matthew Dilks

14th • 10-3-0

100%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

5.7

Surp

4.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stephen Leany (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aidan Arruza (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ilana Hensley (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Veronika Rivera (Unknown)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Emmanuel Barron (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Donovan Niiranen (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nick Gabler (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Isaak Krut (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Elias Brooks (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23

Meta Fit

100% (13/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.27
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R8	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.44
R9	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.47
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.85
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.38

Oscar Ojeda Gomez

17th • 10-3-0

85%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

5.6

Surp

4.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Lamb (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zach Bunn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Barrett Goss (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Unknown)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tristen Dodder (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Stewart Mcgirt (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Carlos Samaniego (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Alex Sneed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Rogue Theory (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jenson Wilhelm (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

85% (11/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (7.0 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.05
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.09
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.16
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.75
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.48
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.42
R9	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.50
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.59
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matthew W

19th • 10-3-0

100%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

5.3

Surp

3.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs ηicholas Carnival II (Unknown)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Dandikar (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Cooper (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Bellotti (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mason Taylor (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jenson Wilhelm (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Austin Chinn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Shane Ginter (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Garrett Shustarich (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ryan Mound (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

100% (13/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (7.7 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.06
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.13
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.21
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.22
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.31
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.43
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.85
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.94
R13	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.61

Lee Kimball

20th • 10-3-0

100%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

5.3

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Virgil Toms (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs CLARK Moore (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Colin Wong (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Charlton Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Timothy Bunn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tyson Au (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Will Rea (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

80:20

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

70:30

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs John Cooper (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

100% (13/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (7.7 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.08
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.06
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.27
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.30
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.58
R12	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.29
R13	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.56

Jenson Wilhelm

25th • 9-4-0

85%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

6.0

Surp

3.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Will Rea (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Xavier Byrne (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tristen Dodder (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aidan Berkel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matthew W (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Eli Teed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alex Sneed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Shane Ginter (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Edward Knight (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jack Sandau (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

85% (11/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.05
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.05
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.38
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.46
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Isaak Krut

26th • 9-4-0

100%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

6.4

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Bugoci (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs George Hudson (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jesse Machusak (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joel Thompson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Easton Douglas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Evan Ford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lee Kimball (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Edward Knight (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Patrick Requejo (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (13/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.08
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.15
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.24
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.16
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.34
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.78
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.83
R13	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Alex Sneed

27th • 9-4-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

5.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Shreve (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Reno (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Austin Chinn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Claire Stanfield (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bryce Platz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Michael Lau (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jenson Wilhelm (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (13/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (7.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.04
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.09
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.13
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.16
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.26
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.55
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.76
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Mercy Bickell

32nd • 9-4-0

92%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

6.2

Surp

3.6

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs joel miner (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 87:13

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chad McKittrick (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Long Dao (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Isaac Murray (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Isaak Krut (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Levi Rauch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs nathan lapham (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Alex Sneed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Gary Gold (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.02
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.25
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.46
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.45
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jacob Baugh

43rd • 8-5-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

6.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Barnes (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matt MacLeod (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Blake Meier (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Timothy Bunn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Damien Riggins (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jenson Wilhelm (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (13/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.14
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.20
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.22
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.27
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.71
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-

Shane Ginter

44th • 8-5-0

92%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

5.6

Surp

2.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gregory Cole (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tristen Dodder (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs CLARK Moore (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Chang (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Zachary Adams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Justin Salmon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Samuel Reno (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Matthew W (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jenson Wilhelm (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Eli Teed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Austin Chinn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Alex Knott (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.05
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.09
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.27
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.32
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.30
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.69
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gary Gold

45th • 8-5-0

92%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

6.2

Surp

3.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jose Newman Jr (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Fischer (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sarah Sloat (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nathaniel Meserve (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Rose smyth (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Austin Somers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Isaac Murray (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Kevin Ho (Unknown)

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs John Cooper (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.05
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.16
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.27
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.27
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.69
R10	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.85
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tariq Patel

50th • 8-5-0

92%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

6.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Nguyen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ayden Dukeshier (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Owen Pfaff (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Parra (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Christopher Shreve (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Isaac Murray (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Kevin Ho (Unknown)

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.08
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.15
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.50
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.15
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.30
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R11	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R12	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R13	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Shane Martin

52nd • 8-5-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

6.3

Surp

3.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick McGregor (Unknown)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jason Woodland (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wesley Cole (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kyle Mattinson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Artie Hamelin (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Joe Fisher (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs nathan lapham (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Brad Betschart (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (13/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (7.0 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.09
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.31
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.31
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.63
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.83
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Alex Slotnick

55th • 8-5-0

92%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eric Shoopman (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Thorington (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 87:13

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Unknown)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ronan Sovitzky (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Brad Betschart (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs David Clark (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Ryan Mound (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (7.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.04
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.09
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.05
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.24
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.47
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.85
R12	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matt MacLeod

57th • 8-5-0

92%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Martinez (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Josh Lind (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Tarris (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Gilmartin (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Clinton Jeffers (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jack Sandau (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Patrick Requejo (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Unknown)

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (7.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.03
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.08
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.28
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.28
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.33
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.54
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R10	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.86
R12	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.61

Ryan Mound

59th • 7-6-0

92%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

6.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Abarca (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Perry (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathaniel Meserve (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Justin Oursler (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Paul Carr (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Gabe Sher (Unknown)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Luke Hillard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alex Knott (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matthew W (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Daniel Bellotti (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.04
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.15
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.21
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.39
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.46
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.48
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patrick Fowley

64th • 6-7-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

6.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rafaelo "Ruffy" Sarmiento (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Osmar Bravo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Biggs (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Humbert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bryant Siders (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rogue Theory (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Claire Stanfield (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (13/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.15
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.14
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.31
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.35
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.27
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.34
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Noah Beygelman

dropped • 7-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

5.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Lau (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kordell Green (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anh Tran (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Rath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Connor Matza (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alexandre Lefebvre (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brad Betschart (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Bryan Apfelbaum (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ian Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (11/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.16
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.50
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Taylor Crawford

dropped • 7-4-0

91%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Connor Matza (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs TJ Johnson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Rodriguez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bryan Apfelbaum (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nathaniel Meserve (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mathew Zoglman-Garcia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.14
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.37
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.50
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Evan Ford

dropped • 6-5-0

91%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

5.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jason Dutch (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sean Cowan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Fryar (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Koosha Jahani (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sam Tsafalas (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Elias Brooks (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs David Clark (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (6.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.19
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.27
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.29
R9	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R11	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Ian Smith

dropped • 6-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeffrey Tracy (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Brock (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Nunn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Johnson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joseph Herbert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs David Watson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

85:15

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 87:13

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Charlton Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.27
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.20
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.33
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.14
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Isaac Murray

dropped • 6-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jason Woodland (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 65:35

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Lenshyn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Knott (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dylan Williamson (Unknown)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Gary Gold (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.06
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.08
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.16
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.48
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Wes Cothran

dropped • 6-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luke Snyder (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 87:13

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robert Mills (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Edward Knight (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael Beygelman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brandon Lenshyn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rihanna LaGrou (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

80:20

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Austin Chinn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (6.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.02
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.20
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.23
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.41
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.25
R9	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R10	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Austin Revera

dropped • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Donovan Mitchell (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michel Corvino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Austin Kim (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joseph Tarleton (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Patrick Requejo (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jakob Allan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.25
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.67
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.89
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.59

Alexandre Lefebvre

dropped • 5-2-1

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Morrison (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Sanmiguel (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vinh Vien (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Artie Hamelin (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aidan Kwasneski (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 CC

Round 7: Draw vs William Harrison (Unknown)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Martin Cox (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.37
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.69

Bryce Platz

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs alberto diaz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jasiel Diez (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Sneed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Austin Somers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs John Cooper (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs John Frankenfield (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.15
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.38

Clinton Jeffers

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Catherine Powell (Unknown)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Fagalde (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Todd Caudill (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rihanna LaGrou (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Charlton Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matt MacLeod (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jon Ho (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.15
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.34
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.37
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-

Elijah Flanders

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt LeGare (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gavin Myre (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 87:13

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Kelemen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Ricca (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jamaica James (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.07
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.05
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90

Eric Mayer

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Jones (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stephen Perez (Unknown)

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alex Conway (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Phillip Manwaring (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs justin schlapkohl (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Donovan Niiranen (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Virgil Toms (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.13
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.64
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.51
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Jasiel Diez

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dennis Mullins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Berg (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bryce Platz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Angel Urias (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alex Espinoza (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Bannigan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Carlos Samaniego (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.67
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.79
R8	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Jonathan Riddell

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Shreve (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Kindberg (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nathaniel Schoettle (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Connor Feezor (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michael Keating (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Timothy Scroggs (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Rogue Theory (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.34
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.20
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.76
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Koosha Jahani

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tae Kim (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Dandikar (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stephen Perez (Unknown)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Martin Cox (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Evan Ford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Anthony DT Zichella (Unknown)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Craig Blasy (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.14
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.43
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90

Matthew McInnis

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Riddell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs noah zubeidi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jose Newman Jr (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michael Berg (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Zack Covington (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Gary Gold (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.37
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.54
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.49
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mychael Caywood

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Jackson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ian E Wright (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joel Urias (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Graham Soloway (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Steven Deaton-Lee (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Anh Tran (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alex Espinoza (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Shelly (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.09
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.25
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.79
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.40

Peter Desautels

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bea Budnik (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Herbert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kyle Schalich (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Eric Keilback (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Roger Bodee (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs John Cooper (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.09
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.30
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.51
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Timothy Scroggs

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Piotr Gruszczyński (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William Harrison (Unknown)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Trey Brehm (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Legesse (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dylan Williamson (Unknown)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Noah Herd (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Riddell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.34
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.45
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.69

Travis McDaniel

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeerod Balangan (Unknown)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Levi Rauch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Franche Tan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Barrett Goss (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Knott (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Anh Tran (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.15
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.43
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.51
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Charlton Smith

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ethan Phillips (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Artie Hamelin (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Steven Becks (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Clinton Jeffers (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ian Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.15
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.35
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Connor Matza

dropped • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Coan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Shoopman (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Carter Barton (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Unknown)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brooks Mitchell (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Ricca (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.22
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.20
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Osmar Bravo

dropped • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Klasman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Chang (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Keating (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Snyder (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Maxwell Kolp (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Justin Whitcomb (Unknown)

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jake Torres (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.12
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.67
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Rodel Rodea

dropped • 2-6-0

88%

Meta

-2.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Schuster (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Charles Dillman (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Shelly (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Presley (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Fields (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dillon Sloat (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.15
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.25
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Aidan Berkel

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Trey Brehm (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Donovan Niiranen (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jenson Wilhelm (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Unknown)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dylan Myers (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Morrison (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Anthony Perry

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs justin schlapkohl (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Justin Whitcomb (Unknown)

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matt LeGare (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Anthony Ambrose (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.40
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.50
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Ernesto Rodriguez

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs justin schlapkohl (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Stephen Leany (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs benjamin slenczka (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Angel Gonzalez (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joe Santianna (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Gabs Gable (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.17
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.33
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.64
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.59
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Luke Magnuson

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hayden Reed (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aidan Kwasneski (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rogue Theory (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Chris Martin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tristen Dodder (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.10
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.17
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.13
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.64
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Nick Gabler

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tanner Sorensen (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Pollitt (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ian Daryl Bon (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Harold Nunn (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Stephen Perez (Unknown)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.58
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Trent Lennon

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Trent Lynch (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Berg (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Vinh Vien (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alex Fraser (Unknown)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jasper Mork (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Elly Bird (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.58
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrew Padlesky

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jake Torres (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eric Reed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gary Gold (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nick Deschamps (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Toby Garza (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Amber Pennington (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.08
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-

Daniel Ferrara

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Jessell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Gilmartin (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tommy Garnett (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Anthony DT Zichella (Unknown)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Little (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.10
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.17
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.39
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Dillon Sloat

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Thi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Rutkowski (Unknown)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Talon Stradley (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Shawn Adams (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rodel Rodea (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.34
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jasper Mork

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Summer Giles (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kelly Angell (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Josh Gardner (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Trent Lennon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mitchell Tillery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.26
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.42
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Ravi Sharma

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Myers (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tim Lee (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Wray (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Jeffs (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Elly Bird (Unknown)

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs The Better Johnson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.29
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.34
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Aaron Grace

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eric Lerer (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Evan Ford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ronan Sovitzky (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Aidan Arruza (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Brian Kebbekus

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Tucker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Bugoci (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mathew Zoglman-Garcia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Liping Chao (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Liwag (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.60
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Florin-Cristian Loghin

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Trey Brehm (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kent Summerour (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.82
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.25
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Franche Tan

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Raul Garcia (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Kruman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Somers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Ricca (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.13
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.75
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

John Alexander

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Steven Leyva (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs William Harrison (Unknown)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Shimon Bandiel (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.57
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Matthew Boudreaux

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anh Tran (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Angel Gonzalez (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Derek Anderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bryan Apfelbaum (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Yuanji Li

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jasper Mork (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jared Wyce (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Green (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Gilmartin (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Joseph Tarleton (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Matthew White

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Carr (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Phi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gregory Cole (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eric LaGaccia (Unknown)

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Scott Krehbiel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Leonardo Ramirez (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Toby Garza

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Clark (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs William Day (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Williamson (Unknown)

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jesus Meraz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs darko o (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.34
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nathaniel Snyder

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Kinison (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Arthur Campbell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brad Betschart (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tim Perlewitz (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.36
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.31
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Torren Draper

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Peter Beck (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Ferguson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Xavier Byrne (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.10
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.19
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.31

Dylan Sieren

dropped • 2-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tommy Garnett (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Randy Wood (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maxwell Kolp (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Walter Snowden (Unknown)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Dung (Yung) Le (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.54
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Draw	✓	0.54	-

Harold Nunn

dropped • 2-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Donovan Kormish (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Cooper (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Jeffrey Tracy (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shereena Decano (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.20
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Draw	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.82
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Sawlsville

dropped • 2-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Anderson (Unknown)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Talon Stradley (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 64:36

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Presley (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Liwag (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Draw	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.24
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Christopher Dietz

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rose smyth (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mason Paladino (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Cooper (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.12
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.54
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Connor Feezor

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kat Covington (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rogue Theory (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Riddell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.55
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Eric Reed

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sean Cowan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jesus Meraz (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Carlos Samaniego (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.30
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Jarik Caisse

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Mainhart (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Feagins (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Anh Tran (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.47
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Steffanie Olson

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brooks Mitchell (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Raul Garcia (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Charles Gilbert (Unknown)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Herzog (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Keating (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.58
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

TJ Johnson

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Rutkowski (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs James Fox (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

alberto diaz

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Platz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alejandro Sablan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luke MacDowall (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Elliott (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rafaelo "Ruffy" Sarmiento (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.36
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.41
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Damian Diaz

dropped • 0-5-0

80%

Meta

-2.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Dilling (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kolby Daily (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kent Summerour (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs John Tucker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Tyler Barrett

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Gilmartin (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bill Dower (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs William Garcia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Andrew Rothermel

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Parra (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emmitt Luna (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Leonardo Ramirez (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Colin Turner

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Piotr Gruszczyński (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Thomas (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Diego Alejandro Correa Miramontes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.54
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Heath Scheiman

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs William Garcia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Miles Slack (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Cowan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kat Covington (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.30
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Kordell Green

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Long Dao (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Velazquez (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daylen Frehlick (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.45
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Jacob Anderson

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vinh Vien (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Yorko (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jamaica James (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.46
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Alec Gullo

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Harrison Timothy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabs Gable (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Hunter Blaes

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Kim (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Carl Norman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Richard Yanke (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Jordan Hightower

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyson Au (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joel Urias (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Oshiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Justin Kinison

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emmanuel Barron (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Daryl Bon (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Kyle Duerst

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hazel Hensley (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Benjamin Coan

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Martin Cox (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Connor Matza (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan Stevenson

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Phillip Bradford (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Ward (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-

Nicholas Botchis

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Dschaak (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Meffert (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Tanner Sorensen

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Graham Soloway (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Tyler Smith

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cameron Whitworth (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Humbert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.