Azalea, Ace in the Hole
17 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
15th • 10-3-0
46%
Meta
+3.7
Perf
6.3
Surp
5.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Connor Talty (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Aidan Arruza (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Bryan Apfelbaum (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
Round 6: Win vs Michael Lau (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Round 8: Win vs Austin Somers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Eric Towne (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Easton Douglas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
46% (6/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 10 actual)
Surprise
6.3 total deviation
Difficulty
5.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
38th • 9-3-1
38%
Meta
+2.9
Perf
6.1
Surp
4.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Zack Covington (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Cameron Whitworth (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nathaniel Meserve (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Edward Knight (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Draw vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Patrick Requejo (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Will Rea (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
38% (5/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
6.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Draw |
| R11 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
54th • 8-4-1
46%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
5.9
Surp
3.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mitchell Tillery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jarik Caisse (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Chris Martin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Henry Gomez (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Rhea Adams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Brad Betschart (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Andrew Parra (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Draw vs David Clark (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Ian Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Alex Sneed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
46% (6/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Draw |
| R10 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R13 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
dropped • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Mitchell Woodland (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jordan McClure (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Sorenson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Peyton Sayasith (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alex Kelemen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Aidan Arruza (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Elias Brooks (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
4.0
Surp
3.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Reno (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dylan Sieren (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kyle Mattinson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrea Biaggi (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Michael Rutkowski (Unknown)
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Barrett Goss (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Mathew Zoglman-Garcia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs David Ross (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-5-0
38%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
4.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Kyle Nunn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Wesley Chandler (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Noah Herd (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
Round 6: Win vs Tommy Anderson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Craig Blasy (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-5-0
25%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.8
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tristen Dodder (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Charles Simmons (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dillon Sloat (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kolby Daily (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Martinez (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Santa (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Rodel Rodea (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-5-1
75%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
3.8
Surp
1.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Elias Brooks (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 51:49
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matt Pollitt (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs John McGovern (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Snyder (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 51:49
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Walter Snowden (Unknown)
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Bailey Collinge (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs Raul Del Cioppo (Unknown)
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Unknown | 50% | Draw |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Keating (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Damian Diaz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Derek Chiu (Unknown)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brandon Lenshyn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Aria How (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Luke Klasman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dylan Brown (Unknown)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tommy Garnett (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Angel Gonzalez (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Sabastian Chizhik (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Wes Cothran (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Elijiah Fegley (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sarah Sloat (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Elijiah Fegley (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Connor Talty (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Colin Turner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Humbert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Peter Desautels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Round 3: Win vs Ariel Sas (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hayden Reed (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ian Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gabs Gable (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Mains (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 51:49
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Josh Lind (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62
Round 4: Win vs Jauhzon smith (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Brian Trail (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jayson Wiggins (Unknown)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Leonardo Ramirez (Unknown)
Round 3: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Martin Cox (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeff Chang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jasper Mork (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Round 3: Win vs Colin Marshall (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Bill Early (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
75%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Bellotti (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kieth Seith (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alberto Ruiz (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jack Sandau (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs alberto diaz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Yorko (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.