Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Calling: Las Vegas
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
17 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
15th • 10-3-0
54%
Meta
+3.9
Perf
6.3
Surp
5.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Connor Talty (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Aidan Arruza (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Bryan Apfelbaum (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
Round 6: Win vs Michael Lau (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
Round 8: Win vs Austin Somers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
25:75
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Eric Towne (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Easton Douglas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
54% (7/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 10 actual)
Surprise
6.3 total deviation
Difficulty
5.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R9 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
38th • 9-3-1
69%
Meta
+3.2
Perf
5.7
Surp
4.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Zack Covington (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Cameron Whitworth (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nathaniel Meserve (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 18:82
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Edward Knight (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Draw vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Patrick Requejo (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Will Rea (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
69% (9/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Draw |
| R11 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
54th • 8-4-1
69%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
6.0
Surp
3.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mitchell Tillery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jarik Caisse (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Chris Martin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Henry Gomez (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Rhea Adams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Brad Betschart (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Andrew Parra (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
20:80
R9 CC
Round 9: Draw vs David Clark (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 18:82
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Ian Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Alex Sneed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
69% (9/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 20% | Draw |
| R10 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
dropped • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Mitchell Woodland (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jordan McClure (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Sorenson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Peyton Sayasith (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alex Kelemen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Aidan Arruza (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Elias Brooks (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Reno (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dylan Sieren (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kyle Mattinson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrea Biaggi (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Michael Rutkowski (Unknown)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Barrett Goss (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Mathew Zoglman-Garcia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs David Ross (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
dropped • 3-5-0
38%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.9
Surp
1.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Kyle Nunn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Wesley Chandler (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36
Round 4: Loss vs Noah Herd (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
Round 6: Win vs Tommy Anderson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Craig Blasy (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-5-0
62%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.6
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tristen Dodder (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 18:82
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Charles Simmons (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dillon Sloat (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
Round 5: Loss vs Kolby Daily (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Martinez (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Santa (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Rodel Rodea (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-5-1
38%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Elias Brooks (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matt Pollitt (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs John McGovern (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Snyder (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Walter Snowden (Unknown)
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Bailey Collinge (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs Raul Del Cioppo (Unknown)
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Unknown | 50% | Draw |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.7
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Keating (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Damian Diaz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Derek Chiu (Unknown)
Round 4: Win vs Brandon Lenshyn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Round 5: Loss vs Aria How (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Luke Klasman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dylan Brown (Unknown)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tommy Garnett (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Angel Gonzalez (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Sabastian Chizhik (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Wes Cothran (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Elijiah Fegley (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Sarah Sloat (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Elijiah Fegley (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Connor Talty (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Colin Turner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Humbert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Peter Desautels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
Round 3: Win vs Ariel Sas (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
Round 4: Loss vs Hayden Reed (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ian Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gabs Gable (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Mains (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Josh Lind (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76
Round 4: Win vs Jauhzon smith (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Brian Trail (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jayson Wiggins (Unknown)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Leonardo Ramirez (Unknown)
Round 3: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Martin Cox (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.8
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeff Chang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jasper Mork (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
Round 3: Win vs Colin Marshall (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Bill Early (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 20% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
75%
Meta
-2.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Bellotti (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kieth Seith (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Round 4: Loss vs Alberto Ruiz (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jack Sandau (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 18:82
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs alberto diaz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Yorko (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.