Calling: Las Vegas - Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn (CC)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Bryce Henschel

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kelly Angell (Unknown)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Leavitt (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Virgil Toms (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lane MacTavish (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

15:85

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ian Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Reid (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.93
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Anastasia Benner

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mitchell Woodland (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chad Allred (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sean Cowan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Sanmiguel (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Yarbrough (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.80
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.43
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.61
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Kieth Seith

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joe Fisher (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonny Espejo (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Blankenship (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Angus Blaxall (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.60
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Gavin Myre

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs roque flores (Unknown)

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elijah Flanders (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gabs Gable (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

joel miner

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Luke Snyder

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

0.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wes Cothran (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (0.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.