Calling: Las Vegas - Dromai, Ash Artist (CC)

Dromai, Ash Artist

66 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Reese Toomre

3rd • 12-3-0

87%

Meta

+4.3

Perf

7.4

Surp

5.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Carson Elliott (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ian Carrico (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Ricca (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Angel Urias (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lee Kimball (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ben Hannan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Garrett Shustarich (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Derek Anderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Eli Teed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Edward Knight (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Eli Teed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

87% (13/15 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.3 Wins (7.7 expected, 12 actual)

Surprise

7.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.16
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.11
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.33
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.39
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.47
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.67
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.59
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.78
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.92
R15	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Shawn Dhaliwal

5th • 11-3-0

100%

Meta

+3.6

Perf

6.6

Surp

5.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nick Huskinson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tariq Patel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Austin Revera (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eli Teed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Clay DeAngelis (Unknown)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rogue Theory (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Gary Gold (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (14/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.05
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.21
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.56
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.70
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.77
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Aaron Shantz

12th • 10-3-0

85%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

6.5

Surp

5.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Smith (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Sanmiguel (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anthony DT Zichella (Unknown)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Ng (Unknown)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Brandon Abarca (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Elias Brooks (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Shane Ginter (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Alex Sneed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

85% (11/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.05
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.15
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.24
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.68
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.68
R10	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.96
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.83
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.98

Michael Jaszczur

35th • 9-4-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

5.9

Surp

4.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Charles Gilbert (Unknown)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Reid (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Angus Blaxall (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 85:15

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Austin Somers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Timothy Bunn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Austin Kim (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Zachary Adams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (13/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (7.2 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.10
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.05
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.40
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.55
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.54
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.54
R10	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.67
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Joseph Kaiser

40th • 9-4-0

77%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

6.6

Surp

4.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt Pollitt (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Torren Draper (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Unknown)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs SEAN STELL (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Scott Krehbiel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Matthew W (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Rogue Theory (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Austin Somers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Zachary Adams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.15
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.36
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.68
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.54
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.68
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R13	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Jeremy Chen

42nd • 9-4-0

100%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

6.2

Surp

4.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Connor Talty (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Connor Feezor (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Elly Bird (Unknown)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Austin Revera (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs nathan lapham (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Austin Chinn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Lucas Ng (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (13/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.10
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.23
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.30
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.40
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.54
R9	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.77
R11	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.71
R13	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jeremiah Gardner

46th • 8-5-0

92%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

6.4

Surp

3.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony DT Zichella (Unknown)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kent Summerour (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Graham Soloway (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rodrigo Martinez (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Boudreaux (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael Lau (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Lee Kimball (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Matthew W (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.06
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.27
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.38
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.45
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.68
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.83
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Austin Somers

60th • 7-6-0

85%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

6.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wesley Dong (Unknown)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Franche Tan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bryce Platz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Gary Gold (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Levi Rauch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Patrick Requejo (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Garrett Shustarich (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

85% (11/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.19
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.23
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.45
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.53
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R9	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Nicholas Tran

dropped • 6-4-1

64%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

5.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Rodriguez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Johnny Wedzicha (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brandon Abarca (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Steven Becks (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Anthony Perry (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Unknown)

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs John Cooper (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Draw vs Brad Betschart (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matt MacLeod (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

64% (7/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.09
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.18
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.69
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.62
R8	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.73
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Draw	✓	0.62	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Zachary Knutson

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Colin Turner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon King (Unknown)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Dockum (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wes Cothran (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jomar Rosete (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ilana Hensley (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Unknown)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.11
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.44
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.75
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.87
R9	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daylen Frehlick

dropped • 5-2-1

75%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs George Hudson (Unknown)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alberto Ruiz (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Keven Meyer (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kordell Green (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eric Shoopman (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs David McCartney (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 85:15

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brandon Mains (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs justin schlapkohl (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.64
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.18
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.68

Jonathan Martinez

dropped • 5-2-1

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Brandon Fields (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elliot Bicker (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Gannon (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Wray (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Rath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Eric Keilback (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Aidan Arruza (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.16
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.52
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.57
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Luke Klasman

dropped • 5-2-1

88%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Osmar Bravo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs darko o (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zachary Burrell (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brandon Fields (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sean Elliott (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs George Dilling (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Patrick McGregor (Unknown)

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Draw vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.52
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Draw	✗	0.45	-

Brandon Green

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Kindberg (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Clark (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jomar Rosete (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cole Torres (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Blake Meier (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sarah Sloat (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.13
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.10
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.63
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.46
R7	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Brooks Mitchell

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Steffanie Olson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Sones (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony DT Zichella (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Emmanuel Barron (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jomar Rosete (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Connor Matza (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.86
R8	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Daniel Humbert

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Tarleton (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jake Brose (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Diego Alejandro Correa Miramontes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Adam Fischer (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.25
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.47
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.43
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.76
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Joe Fisher

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kieth Seith (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Frankenfield (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Ross (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Brandon Flores (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.06
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.31
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.58
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.76
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Michael Lau

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke MacDowall (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Travis Wagner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Edward Knight (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Clay DeAngelis (Unknown)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Levi Rauch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alex Sneed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

SEAN STELL

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Reed (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sean Elliott (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs darko o (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Flores (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Blake Meier (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Brandon King (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.08
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.54
R8	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Adam Fischer

dropped • 4-2-2

88%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Damian Diaz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gary Gold (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jason Dutch (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jasper Mork (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Travis Wagner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Humbert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Steven Becks (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Draw vs Kolby Daily (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.10
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Draw	✓	0.54	-

Jauhzon smith

dropped • 4-3-1

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Asher May (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Mainhart (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt LeGare (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Timmy Nguyen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Jeffrey Tracy (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs roque flores (Unknown)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs David Hamilton (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alex Espinoza (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.09
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Jeremiah Oldes

dropped • 4-3-1

75%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Herbert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Kyle Nunn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alec Gullo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Emi Sieting (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alberto Ruiz (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

85:15

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Talon Stradley (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 85:15

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Leonardo Ramirez (Unknown)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Arthur Campbell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.37
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.58
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.18
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.69

Michel Corvino

dropped • 4-3-1

88%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josh Gardner (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Revera (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dung (Yung) Le (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dexter Canright (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Matthew Yorko (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremy Kruman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ethan Phillips (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs David Elrod (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Draw	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Bailey Collinge

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peyton Sayasith (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shawn Wilkins (Unknown)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Tavres (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs steven coker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eric LaGaccia (Unknown)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs David Elrod (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Thrad Weibley (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Steven Becks (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.24
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.61
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.26

Connar Bodoh

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Angus Blaxall (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anastasia Benner (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 73:27

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jamal Salem Saedidaryan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Leonardo Ramirez (Unknown)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Aaron Grace (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Ho (Unknown)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.12
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.25
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ilana Hensley

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ayden Dukeshier (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kat Covington (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Dilks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Reno (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kyle Schalich (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Henry Gomez (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Mitchell Tillery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.37
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.64
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jesse Machusak

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Mattinson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brian Trail (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs John Frankenfield (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Charles Simmons (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Xavier Byrne (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Braden Phillips (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.17

Virgil Toms

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Greget (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Asher May (Unknown)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Charles Dillman (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Braden Phillips (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Eric Mayer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.26
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.88
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Travis Wagner

dropped • 3-4-1

88%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Prejean (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Johnny Wedzicha (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Lau (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs darko o (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Adam Fischer (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nicholas Mejac (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brandon King (Unknown)

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Eric Keilback (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.10
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Anthony Bugoci

dropped • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Powell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brian Kebbekus (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gerald Toms (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kyle Mattinson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs John Frankenfield (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Hazel Hensley (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ovas Siddiqui (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Justin Liwag

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kelly Angell (Unknown)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex McCormick (Unknown)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs josh hunt (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael Sawlsville (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brian Kebbekus (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jon Ho (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.39
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.70
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.84
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Michael Miller

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs darko o (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zack Covington (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Pribyl (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Meffert (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John Reed (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brian Trail (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Cody Williams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.58
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.24
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.46
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.66
R7	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Devon Wilson

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Mendez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Bunn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dylan Brown (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Todd Caudill (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sam Tsafalas (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alberto Ruiz (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

JJ Lisonbee

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nick Huskinson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ariel Sas (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Raul Del Cioppo (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jason McCandless (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andrea Biaggi (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Bertrand (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.56
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.26

Michael Keating

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs George Dilling (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Chang (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bryant Siders (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Osmar Bravo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Steffanie Olson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Riddell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.12
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.82
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Paul Carr

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew White (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sam Yuen (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.45
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Phillip Manwaring

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josh Lind (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bryan Apfelbaum (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Gump (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Raul Garcia (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Mayer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs David Hamilton (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.25

Rodrigo Martinez

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Galleran (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Tarleton (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chad Allred (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Richard Yanke (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Anthony Galleran

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rodrigo Martinez (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Mattinson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adrian Walker (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kolby Daily (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dominic Villarruel (Unknown)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs John Tucker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.67
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.17

Joel Urias

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Chang (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jordan Hightower (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mychael Caywood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Elly Bird (Unknown)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Sones (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Christopher Little (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.33
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Tim Chambers

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Nobriga (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Meffert (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zack Covington (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs BRAD ALLRED (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kyle Schalich (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Tommy Anderson

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs carolina alvarado (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Brock (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Arthur Campbell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Bill Early

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aidan Arruza (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Becky Dillon (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zack Covington (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Summer Giles (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Briggs (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.27
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.55
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

James Nguyen

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Morrison (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Garner (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tyler Dumansky (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adrian Mendez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.84
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.17

Jeff Chang

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Summer Giles (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rafaelo "Ruffy" Sarmiento (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chad McKittrick (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs carolina alvarado (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.14
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.62
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Kyle Mattinson

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Machusak (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Galleran (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Randy Wood (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.42
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nathan Thi

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Diana Green (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dillon Sloat (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Lucius (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Artie Hamelin (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.70
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Vinh Vien

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Anderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Sandau (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexandre Lefebvre (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Trent Lennon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael Lucius (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.20
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Wim Haeck

dropped • 1-2-2

80%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Gerald Toms (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mitchell Tillery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Taylor Metz (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Mainhart (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Tang (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Draw	✓	0.75	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Keven Meyer

dropped • 1-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sage Husanu (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Daylen Frehlick (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Carson Elliott

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Velazquez (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stephen Leany (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Briggs (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dennis Mullins

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jasiel Diez (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Tavres (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Cameron (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Ambrose (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Fernando Alvizo

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jon Ho (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mychael Gochee (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Catherine Powell (Unknown)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hazel Hensley (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Ian Daryl Bon

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Ferguson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs James Mangles (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Kinison (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Jason Dutch

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Pribyl (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Ford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs BRAD ALLRED (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Raul Garcia

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Franche Tan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Steffanie Olson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tae Kim (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Phillip Manwaring (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.01
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Robert Mills

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Bannigan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wes Cothran (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyruss Sennett (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Shereena Decano

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Godinez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Frankenfield (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Harold Nunn (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Ben Odenheimer

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Erick Avila (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elias Brooks (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.23
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Aaron Moore

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Angel Urias (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs george flete (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Ward (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.83
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Jonathan Jackson

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mychael Caywood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs carolina alvarado (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.33
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Donovan Kormish

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Harold Nunn (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tony DeCaro (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Wolfe (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Mitchell Woodland

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Hillard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kirk Huber (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anastasia Benner (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Brock Ullom

dropped • 1-0-0

Meta

+0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Johnny Yu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (0.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.17

Emil Jannesson

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Rojas (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

VINAY SONI

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Claire Stanfield (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.