Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Las Vegas
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
15 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jamal Salem Saedidaryan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Austin Kim (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 28:72
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jeremy Kruman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Connor Matza (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Peter Beck (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ian Carrico (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Peyton Sayasith (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
dropped • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
4.1
Surp
3.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Humbert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Rodrigo Martinez (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Rihanna LaGrou (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Unknown)
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Austin Revera (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78
Round 6: Win vs Yuanji Li (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Nicholas Mejac (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Kevin Ho (Unknown)
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Win |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Shawn Adams (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 29:71
Round 3: Win vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Bertrand (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Devon Wilson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Joel Thompson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Bryan Apfelbaum (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 28:72
20:80
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Evan Ford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dominic Villarruel (Unknown)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Blake Meier (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs George Hudson (Unknown)
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 28:72
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kevin Chang (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
20:80
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Peter Desautels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Martinez (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Travis Wagner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
dropped • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Dillon (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 29:71
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Delaney Ferguson (Unknown)
Round 4: Win vs Rodel Rodea (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Scott Krehbiel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
20:80
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Mychael Caywood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Win |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-6-0
38%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Alec Gullo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Edward Knight (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Yarbrough (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 16:84
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Elijiah Fegley (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nick Huskinson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Raul Del Cioppo (Unknown)
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jake Torres (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 29:71
15:85
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Ethan Phillips (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 16:84
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Bravo, Showstopper | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 2-6-0
50%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rory Hartley (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 16:84
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Mullins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bailey Collinge (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Brengartner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jake Torres (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 29:71
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Alex McCormick (Unknown)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Sorenson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-7-0
50%
Meta
-2.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jamal Salem Saedidaryan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 29:71
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ernesto Rodriguez (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Connor Talty (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 29:71
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alex McCormick (Unknown)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Eric LaGaccia (Unknown)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ian E Wright (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Tavres (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-6-0
43%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sam Tsafalas (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Win vs Taylor Metz (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Craig Blasy (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 16:84
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Bannigan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 16:84
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kayla Ginter (Unknown)
20:80
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Dillon Sloat (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs roque flores (Unknown)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 15% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
| R7 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.9
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matt MacLeod (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Raymond Griffin (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Justin Lamb (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nick Huskinson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Morrison (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs SEAN STELL (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dalton Gomez (Unknown)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Phi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Kruman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Miller (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Gump (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Walter Snowden (Unknown)
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Sawlsville (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Wilkins (Unknown)
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Rodel Rodea (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.4
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jamaica James (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 16:84
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Abarca (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Stephen Olympia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Unknown)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brian Trail (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hayden Reed (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kalani Low (Unknown)
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Riddell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 1-1-0
50%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
1.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Tyler Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brad Betschart (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (0.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.