Vynnset, Iron Maiden
15 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jamal Salem Saedidaryan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Austin Kim (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 23:77
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jeremy Kruman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Connor Matza (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Peter Beck (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ian Carrico (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Peyton Sayasith (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 20% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
dropped • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
4.2
Surp
3.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Humbert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Rodrigo Martinez (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Rihanna LaGrou (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Unknown)
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Austin Revera (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
Round 6: Win vs Yuanji Li (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Nicholas Mejac (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 59:41
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Kevin Ho (Unknown)
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Win |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Shawn Adams (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 19:81
Round 3: Win vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Bertrand (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38
Round 5: Win vs Devon Wilson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Joel Thompson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 59:41
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Bryan Apfelbaum (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 23:77
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Evan Ford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 4-4-0
38%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dominic Villarruel (Unknown)
Round 2: Loss vs Blake Meier (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs George Hudson (Unknown)
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 23:77
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kevin Chang (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Peter Desautels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Martinez (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64
Round 8: Win vs Travis Wagner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
dropped • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Dillon (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 19:81
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Delaney Ferguson (Unknown)
Round 4: Win vs Rodel Rodea (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)
Round 6: Loss vs Scott Krehbiel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 59:41
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Mychael Caywood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-6-0
25%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Alec Gullo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Edward Knight (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Yarbrough (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 27:73
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Elijiah Fegley (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 59:41
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nick Huskinson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Raul Del Cioppo (Unknown)
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jake Torres (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 19:81
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Ethan Phillips (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 20% | Loss |
| R8 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-6-0
50%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.8
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rory Hartley (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 27:73
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Mullins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bailey Collinge (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64
Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Brengartner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jake Torres (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 19:81
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Alex McCormick (Unknown)
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Sorenson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-7-0
38%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.6
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jamal Salem Saedidaryan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 19:81
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ernesto Rodriguez (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Connor Talty (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 19:81
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alex McCormick (Unknown)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Eric LaGaccia (Unknown)
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ian E Wright (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Tavres (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-6-0
43%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
3.0
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sam Tsafalas (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Win vs Taylor Metz (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Craig Blasy (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Bannigan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 27:73
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kayla Ginter (Unknown)
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Dillon Sloat (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs roque flores (Unknown)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matt MacLeod (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
Round 2: Loss vs Raymond Griffin (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 3: Win vs Justin Lamb (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nick Huskinson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Morrison (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 20% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.4
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs SEAN STELL (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dalton Gomez (Unknown)
Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Phi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Kruman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Miller (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Gump (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Walter Snowden (Unknown)
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Sawlsville (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Wilkins (Unknown)
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Rodel Rodea (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jamaica James (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 27:73
Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Abarca (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 3: Win vs Stephen Olympia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Unknown)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brian Trail (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hayden Reed (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kalani Low (Unknown)
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Riddell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-1-0
50%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
1.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Tyler Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brad Betschart (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (0.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.