Briar, Warden of Thorns
27 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
18th • 10-3-0
46%
Meta
+3.7
Perf
5.7
Surp
5.7
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Leigh Pushard (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 74:26
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chris Rowland (Unknown)
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Aria How (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Garrett Shustarich (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Tyson Au (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Round 11: Win vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Mark Johnson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Anthony Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
46% (6/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 10 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
5.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
| R12 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
31st • 9-4-0
38%
Meta
+3.2
Perf
6.1
Surp
5.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs george flete (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Braden Phillips (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alex Sneed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tyruss Sennett (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kenneth Thomas (Unknown)
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Aria How (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Matthew W (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Thomas Yarbrough (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Round 10: Win vs Wes Cothran (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
Round 12: Win vs Shane Ginter (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
38% (5/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
6.1 total deviation
Difficulty
5.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
| R13 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 5-3-0
12%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
4.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Boudreaux (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Justin Smith (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 72:28
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Elliot Bicker (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
Round 5: Win vs Jarik Caisse (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Mychael Caywood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
12% (1/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
dropped • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.4
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mason Paladino (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tim Lui (Unknown)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alexandre Lefebvre (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nathan Thi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Todd Caudill (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Angel Urias (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Win |
dropped • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Garrett Shustarich (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Charles Martin (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alex Espinoza (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Peter Desautels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ilana Hensley (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tim Chambers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Nick Huskinson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Win |
dropped • 4-4-0
38%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bailey Collinge (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Garrett Shustarich (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Anthony Herzog (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 74:26
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Luke Hillard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jacob Bertrand (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mitchell Tillery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Will Rea (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Carter Barton (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-4-0
88%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
4.5
Surp
2.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Miller (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Luke Klasman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs SEAN STELL (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Travis Wagner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
Round 5: Win vs Toby Garza (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Round 6: Loss vs Aidan Kwasneski (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Reid (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Nick Huskinson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 70% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 70% | Loss |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-5-0
75%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.8
Surp
1.3
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Noah Herd (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 72:28
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Martin Cox (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Vance Jones (Unknown)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Stewart Mcgirt (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Bailey Collinge (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
Round 7: Loss vs Connor Talty (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Michel Corvino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 70% | Loss |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bill Dower (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 74:26
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Brandon Flores (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
Round 3: Win vs Phillip Bourner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Austin Somers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew W (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Bellotti (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Unknown)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.0
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Thomas Briggs (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tim Lui (Unknown)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Tarleton (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Long Dao (Unknown)
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Clinton Jeffers (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Bryan Hefner (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Wes Cothran (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.0
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Burrell (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Donovan Niiranen (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tyler Dschaak (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Reno (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Rafaelo "Ruffy" Sarmiento (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Peter Desautels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brishen Jaimes (Unknown)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Devon Wilson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brandon King (Unknown)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bryan Hefner (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.1
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chad Allred (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 72:28
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Aidan Berkel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Wolfe (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 77:23
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Johnny Wedzicha (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Eric Mayer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-1
67%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs John McGovern (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Roger Bodee (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Luke Klasman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Santa (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alexander Jeffs (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 72:28
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Will Rea (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Draw |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Aria How (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Will Rea (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Steven Leyva (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 74:26
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dennis Mullins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Justin Powell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Perry (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Walter Snowden (Unknown)
Round 2: Win vs Alexandre Lefebvre (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Peter Beck (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Eric Towne (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Anastasia Benner (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.2
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Colin Marshall (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Connor Matza (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Round 4: Win vs Ian E Wright (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Daylen Frehlick (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Ricca (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michel Corvino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sabastian Chizhik (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 74:26
Round 3: Loss vs Brian Trail (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Christopher Sorenson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 74:26
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jasper Mork (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Gump (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 75% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs James Mangles (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs David Clark (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 57:43
Round 4: Win vs TJ Johnson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alex Knott (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Emmitt Luna (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 77:23
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Clinton Jeffers (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Carl Norman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Unknown)
Round 5: Loss vs Alex Espinoza (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Steven Leyva (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 74:26
Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Tarris (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michel Corvino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Donghee Kim (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 75% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Frailey (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kieth Seith (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs TJ Johnson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ethan Phillips (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.6
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Richard Yanke (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Piotr Gruszczyński (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Will Rea (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-1
60%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Unknown)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Mathew Zoglman-Garcia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kenneth Thomas (Unknown)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ernesto Rodriguez (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Round 5: Loss vs Connor Talty (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Draw |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Rothhaar (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bryan Dang (Unknown)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jarik Caisse (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 75% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Whitcomb (Unknown)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)
Round 3: Loss vs Lane MacTavish (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 75% | Loss |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.