Sunday Showdown: São Paulo 2026 - Kayo (SAGE)

Kayo

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

João Borges

11th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Sobral (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gian Moreira (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs GINALDO Junior (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Eduardo Melo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Pedro Afonso Amaral (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Danton Lima (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.73
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.31

Ricardo de Campos Dorini

21st • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Amorim (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Antonio José Filho (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kaina Gimenez (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomaz Sardinha (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Artur Campos (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jhony Oliveira (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Maurício Tavares (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.26
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Raul Carlin

28th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cristian Rojas (Unknown)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Breno Santos (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Freitas (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lucas de Figueiredo (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Gabriel Eluan (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andre Benatti (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ignacio Riego (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.44
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.87
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Alvaro Lima

44th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Roosevelt Villela (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Vinicius Nishimura (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs João Foltran (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Renan Salomao (Azalea) - Expected: 77:23

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Joao Morato (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Gabriel Eluan (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.22
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Airon Luis Pereira

45th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tsutomu Matsumoto (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joaquín González Vandam (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Fonseca (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Stefano Macarini (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Bastos (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Willian Gasparin (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Felipe Loreto (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.23
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Rogelio Passafaro

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs guilherme esteves de sá (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ricardo Ferreira de Oliveira (Tuffnut) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Murilo Lixandrao (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Fonseca (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Evandro Campos (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Tuffnut	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Stefano Macarini

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Joao Morato (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Thomaz Sardinha (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Fabiano Azola (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Airon Luis Pereira (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Sobral (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.52
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Geraldo Amorim

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Fabiano Azola (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Raul Nascimento (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Antonio José Filho (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

IAN MESQUITA

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs João Victor Bohrer Munhoz (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Eluan (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Emerson França (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Eliseu Moreno (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.50
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

João Eduardo Cardoso Pinheiro

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Antonio José Filho (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gustavo Thunder_red (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Isabella Bregensk (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Sobral (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Zé Luis

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nicolas De Marco (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Evandro Campos (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Phillip Bradford (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.