Sunday Showdown: São Paulo 2026 - Ira, Crimson Haze (SAGE)

Ira, Crimson Haze

18 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Marcos Rogerio Silva

1st • 9-1-0

80%

Meta

+3.8

Perf

4.8

Surp

4.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Geraldo Amorim (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs DOUGLAS CHAGAS (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs João Borges (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Emerson França (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rogelio Passafaro (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kaina Gimenez (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Tenorio (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Pedro Afonso Amaral (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Lucas Tenorio (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

85:15

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs David Lewis (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.52
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.68
R8	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.05
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.87
R10	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.27

GINALDO Junior

3rd • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Murilo Lixandrao (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Isabella Bregensk (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tsutomu Matsumoto (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs João Borges (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Danton Lima (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Tenorio (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Breno Santos (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Bernardo Coelho (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs David Lewis (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.52
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.39
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.86
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-

Breno Santos

5th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Raul Fernandes (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Raul Carlin (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rafael De Melo (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Isabella Bregensk (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Evandro Campos (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tsutomu Matsumoto (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs GINALDO Junior (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Lucas Tenorio (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.46
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.17
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert

5th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs João Foltran (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Morelli Junior (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Laerte Cursino (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Freitas (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rafael De Melo (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gian Moreira (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jhony Oliveira (Dorinthea) - Expected: 64:36

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs David Lewis (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.39
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.61
R6	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.57
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-

Kaina Gimenez

10th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thomaz Sardinha (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nicolas De Marco (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ricardo de Campos Dorini (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Dertoni (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jhony Oliveira (Dorinthea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Gian Moreira (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.73
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68

Laerte Cursino

13th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Evandro Campos (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Paulo Santos (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bernardo Coelho (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tsutomu Matsumoto (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Artur Campos (Enigma) - Expected: 79:21

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Rafael Palamoni (Dorinthea) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.29
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.65

Ignacio Riego

19th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Freitas (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Felipe Loreto (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rafael Luz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Bastos (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joaquín González Vandam (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Raul Carlin (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.89
R5	Silver Age	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.99

VITOR VANACOR

26th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mario Cioffi (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Tenorio (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Gabriel Makai (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Pedro Afonso Amaral (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs guilherme esteves de sá (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs André Rafael Chagas Godoy (Riptide) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Joao Morato (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.56
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.32
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Joaquín González Vandam

40th • 3-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Draw vs Caio Santos (Levia) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Airon Luis Pereira (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Miguel Jensen (Enigma) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Colaco (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Aquino (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ignacio Riego (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Paulo Santos (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.55
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Gabriel Fonseca

37th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Gabriel Makai (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mario Cioffi (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Airon Luis Pereira (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rogelio Passafaro (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Airton dos Santos Junior (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Maurício Tavares (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs André Rafael Chagas Godoy (Riptide) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.19
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Roosevelt Villela

38th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alvaro Lima (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Aquino (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joao Morato (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs João Victor Bohrer Munhoz (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Antonio José Filho (Dorinthea) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Gustavo Pedrotti (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Gabriel Makai (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.47
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Andre Benatti

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Eduardo Melo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gian Moreira (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Murilo Ronsoni (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Felipe Loreto (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Raul Carlin (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Eduardo Melo

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Pedro Afonso Amaral (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andre Benatti (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs guilherme esteves de sá (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Danton Lima (Dash) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs João Borges (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Dertoni (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R4	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Leonardo Guimarães

dropped • 2-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gustavo Pedrotti (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rafael Luz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bernardo Coelho (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Draw vs Felipe Loreto (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Rafael Palamoni (Dorinthea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Murilo Ronsoni

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pedro Janousek (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Renan Salomao (Azalea) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Maurício Tavares (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andre Benatti (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs João Victor Bohrer Munhoz (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Rafael Luz

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Colaco (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Leonardo Guimarães (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ignacio Riego (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Maurício Tavares (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

DOUGLAS CHAGAS

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Fabio Aurelio (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jhony Oliveira (Dorinthea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Heitor Pooli Barbosa

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Emerson França (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Miguel Jensen (Enigma) - Expected: 79:21

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Morelli Junior (Oldhim) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.