Sunday Showdown: São Paulo 2026 - Iyslander (SAGE)

Iyslander

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lucas Tenorio

3rd • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ricardo Ferreira de Oliveira (Tuffnut) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs VITOR VANACOR (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Aquino (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rafael De Melo (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Bernardo Coelho (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs GINALDO Junior (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Breno Santos (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Tuffnut	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.92
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Bernardo Coelho

5th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Palamoni (Dorinthea) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Miguel Ardovino (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Leonardo Guimarães (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Laerte Cursino (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Tenorio (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Raul Nascimento (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs David Lewis (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs GINALDO Junior (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Rafael De Melo

14th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Artur Campos (Enigma) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Emerson França (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Breno Santos (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Tenorio (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Freitas (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Rafael Barros (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	15%	Win	✗	0.84	0.38
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.01
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Raul Nascimento

23rd • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rafael de Oliveira Julio (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs guilherme esteves de sá (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Geraldo Amorim (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rafael Barros (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Maurício Tavares (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bernardo Coelho (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tsutomu Matsumoto (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.45
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Rafael Barros

25th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Fabiano Azola (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Maurício Tavares (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Danton Lima (Dash) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Raul Nascimento (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Freitas (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Emerson França (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Rafael De Melo (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Dash	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R6	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Willian Gasparin

43rd • 3-3-1

86%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Gabriel Eluan (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs João Victor Bohrer Munhoz (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Anderson Silva (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Phillip Bradford (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Bruno Ferreira (Riptide) - Expected: 86:14

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Airon Luis Pereira (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Draw vs Eliseu Moreno (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Bravo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.16
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.99
R7	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Lucas Aquino

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bruno Ferreira (Riptide) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Roosevelt Villela (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Tenorio (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Amorim (Fai) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Joaquín González Vandam (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Raul Fernandes

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Breno Santos (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Marcel Moscatelli (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Pedro Janousek (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Artur Campos (Enigma) - Expected: 16:84

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Emerson França (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

guilherme esteves de sá

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rogelio Passafaro (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Raul Nascimento (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Eduardo Melo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Lewis (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs VITOR VANACOR (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Anthony Colaco

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Rafael Luz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Caio Santos (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Amorim (Fai) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Joaquín González Vandam (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Gabriel Makai (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Nicolas De Marco

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Zé Luis (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kaina Gimenez (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Thomaz Sardinha (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Morelli Junior (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Miguel Ardovino

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Airton dos Santos Junior (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bernardo Coelho (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rafael Palamoni (Dorinthea) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Vinicius Nishimura (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Fabiano Azola

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Rafael Barros (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Geraldo Amorim (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Stefano Macarini (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Marcel Moscatelli

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Dertoni (Vynnset) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Raul Fernandes (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Bastos (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.