Sunday Showdown: São Paulo 2026 - Valda Brightaxe (SAGE)

Valda Brightaxe

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gabriel Eluan

33rd • 4-2-1

71%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Willian Gasparin (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs IAN MESQUITA (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Draw vs Felipe Loreto (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tsutomu Matsumoto (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Raul Carlin (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alvaro Lima (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Isabella Bregensk (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.35
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

João Victor Bohrer Munhoz

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs IAN MESQUITA (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Willian Gasparin (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gustavo Pedrotti (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Roosevelt Villela (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Murilo Ronsoni (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.20

Vinicius Nishimura

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Felipe Loreto (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alvaro Lima (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Artur Campos (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Miguel Ardovino (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Eliseu Moreno (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.99
R5	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Fabio Aurelio

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs DOUGLAS CHAGAS (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.