Sunday Showdown: São Paulo 2026 - Briar (SAGE)

Briar

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Pedro Afonso Amaral

5th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Eduardo Melo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Pedro Vecchi (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Paulo Santos (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs VITOR VANACOR (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Amorim (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs João Borges (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Evandro Campos (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.46
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.39
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.55
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Maurício Tavares

16th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Miguel Jensen (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rafael Barros (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Murilo Ronsoni (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rafael Luz (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Raul Nascimento (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gabriel Fonseca (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ricardo de Campos Dorini (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Gabriel Makai

34th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Fonseca (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs André Rafael Chagas Godoy (Riptide) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs VITOR VANACOR (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bruno Ferreira (Riptide) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Colaco (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Felipe Loreto (Pleiades) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Roosevelt Villela (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.06
R6	Silver Age	Pleiades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.38
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Emerson França

35th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Heitor Pooli Barbosa (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rafael De Melo (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs IAN MESQUITA (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Raul Fernandes (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Rafael Barros (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Artur Campos (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.06
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Isabella Bregensk

41st • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs João Marin (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs GINALDO Junior (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs João Eduardo Cardoso Pinheiro (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Breno Santos (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Paulo Santos (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Murilo Lixandrao (Boltyn) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Gabriel Eluan (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Boltyn	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.43
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Pedro Janousek

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Murilo Ronsoni (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Dertoni (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Raul Fernandes (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Murilo Lixandrao (Boltyn) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Boltyn	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Anderson Silva

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs André Rafael Chagas Godoy (Riptide) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Murilo Lixandrao (Boltyn) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Willian Gasparin (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Boltyn	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Pedro Vecchi

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Paulo Santos (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Pedro Afonso Amaral (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bruno Ferreira (Riptide) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.