Sunday Showdown: São Paulo 2026 - Bravo, Flattering Showman (SAGE)

Bravo, Flattering Showman

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Paulo Santos

32nd • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Pedro Vecchi (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Laerte Cursino (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pedro Afonso Amaral (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gustavo Thunder_red (Dorinthea) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Isabella Bregensk (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Joao Morato (Oldhim) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Joaquín González Vandam (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	15%	Win	✗	0.83	1.48
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15

João Foltran

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Artur Campos (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alvaro Lima (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mario Cioffi

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs VITOR VANACOR (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Fonseca (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Renan Salomao (Azalea) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.