Oldhim at Sunday Showdown: São Paulo 2026

Oldhim

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joao Morato

18th • 5-1-1

86%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Stefano Macarini (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs David Lewis (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Roosevelt Villela (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Evandro Campos (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alvaro Lima (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Paulo Santos (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs VITOR VANACOR (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Draw	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.37
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.90
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.60

Tsutomu Matsumoto

12th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Airon Luis Pereira (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lucas de Figueiredo (Dromai) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs GINALDO Junior (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Eluan (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Laerte Cursino (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Breno Santos (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Raul Nascimento (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.43
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Daniel Bastos

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rafael Palamoni (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Marcel Moscatelli (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ignacio Riego (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Airon Luis Pereira (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.88
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Morelli Junior

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

10:90

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jhony Oliveira (Dorinthea) - Expected: 11:89

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Heitor Pooli Barbosa (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nicolas De Marco (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.45
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.