Oldhim at Sunday Showdown: São Paulo 2026

Oldhim

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joao Morato

18th • 5-1-1

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Stefano Macarini (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs David Lewis (Dromai) - Expected: 73:27

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Roosevelt Villela (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Evandro Campos (Fai) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alvaro Lima (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Paulo Santos (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs VITOR VANACOR (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	75%	Draw	✓	0.73	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.37
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.60

Tsutomu Matsumoto

12th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.6

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Airon Luis Pereira (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lucas de Figueiredo (Dromai) - Expected: 73:27

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs GINALDO Junior (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Eluan (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Laerte Cursino (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Breno Santos (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Raul Nascimento (Iyslander) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.43
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.55

Daniel Bastos

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rafael Palamoni (Dorinthea) - Expected: 12:88

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Marcel Moscatelli (Iyslander) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ignacio Riego (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Airon Luis Pereira (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.16
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Morelli Junior

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

10:90

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jhony Oliveira (Dorinthea) - Expected: 12:88

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Heitor Pooli Barbosa (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nicolas De Marco (Iyslander) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.45
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.