Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship 2026 - Netherlands
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 6-3-0
44%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
3.7
Surp
4.0
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Robin Waij (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 72:28
Round 2: Win vs Calum Young (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 12:88
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Robert Crone (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 53:47
25:75
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Hugo Platret (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 25:75
Round 10: Win vs Wouter Ouwehand (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Sherish Chowhari (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Wouter Ouwehand (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zyggy Starlight | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 15% | Loss |
| R8 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
14th • 5-2-0
43%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
3.8
Surp
4.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mark Henderson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hao Ru Wu (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs David Moore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53
Round 4: Win vs Noah Cagle (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
Round 8: Win vs Calum Young (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs David Kuric (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Alwart Nijveld (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 20% | Win |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
27th • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.1
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 12:88
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nathan Doornenbal (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 72:28
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Philippos Koulousakis (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Sherish Chowhari (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Mark Henderson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
| R9 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
40th • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jasper de Riet (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jurgen Maas (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
Round 4: Win vs Jeroen van der Wal (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Tom Kruijsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 25:75
Round 9: Loss vs Niels Vos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Philippos Koulousakis (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
| R9 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Loss |
| R10 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
28th • 2-5-0
29%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.1
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dylan Harmsen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
Round 2: Loss vs Michel Radosevic (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dave van Luttervelt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 25:75
Round 4: Win vs Gjalt Hooijkamp (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
15:85
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 12:88
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs David Kuric (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 15% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
29th • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alwart Nijveld (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jasper de Riet (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Robin Waij (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 72:28
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jurgen Maas (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Kilian Schellekens (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Malyk Höfle (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 53:47
20:80
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Noah Cagle (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Zyggy Starlight | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
| R10 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.4
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeroen van der Wal (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Moore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nathan Doornenbal (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 72:28
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daan Heister (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Zyggy Starlight | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.