Fai, Rising Rebellion at National Championship 2026

Fai, Rising Rebellion

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mark Henderson

11th • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marcel Andrzejczak (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Malyk Höfle (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gary White (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Wouter Ouwehand (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jasper de Riet (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.62
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.99
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.55

Benjamin Van donkelaar

15th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Doornenbal (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joram Janson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robert Crone (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Kruijsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lily-anne Hurkmans (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Wessel Groot (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.06
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.22
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.77
R9	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.05
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Jory van de Loo

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Max de Wilde (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael de Kok (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sherish Chowhari (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

Stefan Hilderink

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sam Paulissen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs René Van Hoorn (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.