Zyggy Starlight at National Championship 2026

Zyggy Starlight

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rob van der Burgh

41st • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas van den Berg (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hugo Platret (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gjalt Hooijkamp (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Philippos Koulousakis (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Kevin van Steenis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72

5:95

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Calum Young (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 7:93

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.50
R8	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.02
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-

Nathan Doornenbal

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Thoen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hao Ru Wu (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.58

Robin Waij

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gary White (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lars Govers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bart van Koningsbruggen (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.