Kayo, Underhanded Cheat at National Championship 2026

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Arnold Baars

9th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jurgen Maas (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hugo Platret (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Wouter Ouwehand (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Robert Crone (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.47
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.14
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43

Kaloyan Nikov

38th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.9

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin van Steenis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Kruijsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jasper de Riet (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Niels Vos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Richard Kruithof (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Noah Cagle (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.29
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.14
R9	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43

Bart van Koningsbruggen

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Kruijsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wouter Ouwehand (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wessel Groot (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Robin Waij (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.