Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2026 - Netherlands
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
32nd • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.7
Surp
4.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Jory van de Loo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs David Kuric (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gary White (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Laurens Overgaauw (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Jeroen van der Wal (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs René Schep (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Wessel Groot (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.