Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at National Championship 2026 - New Zealand
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
27th • 4-3-0
0%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
4.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gary Lynch (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Sinclair (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ryan McIntyre (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Ben Thomas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Cameron Hay (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54
Round 10: Win vs Neveiah Tetuhi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Meta Fit
0% (0/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
44th • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Zak Murray (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Liam Fisher (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56
10:90
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Luke Steer (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 9:91
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Falconer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Joshua Wellington (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Kelvin Clarke (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Mae Jane Collett (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 10% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Vincent Gardiner (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Keegan Walls (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 60:40
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Grayson Ziogas (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54
Round 8: Loss vs Rob Davenport (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Quazi Tahmeedzaman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Loss |
| R9 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Edward Kim (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Gavin Wu (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Marshall Stevenson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60
15:85
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Tom Hartley (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 16:84
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Mitch Winter (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Puffin, Hightail | 15% | Loss |
| R9 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alex Tomov (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Cameron Hay (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Dunlop (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Harris Lenz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Gavin Wu (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Damian Torwick (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Wade (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
10:90
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Elijah Hewlett (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 9:91
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 10% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.