Jarl Vetreiði at National Championship 2026

Jarl Vetreiði

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Patrick Darge

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Smith (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jared Fung (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nick Kerr (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Luke Steer (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.39
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R8	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.88

Harris Lenz

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Liam Spronken (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Dunlop (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jess Arnesen (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 24:76

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Braiden Burne (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R3	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.73

Ryan Rinsma

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mathew Fletcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Neveiah Tetuhi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mitch Winter (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zach Johnson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.22
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.