Valda, Seismic Impact at National Championship 2026 - New Zealand
Valda, Seismic Impact
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 7-1-0
88%
Meta
+2.9
Perf
3.9
Surp
4.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs john jaurigue (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Henry Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kiki Labad (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Elliott Nichols (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Oliver Berry (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Liam Spronken (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Liam Spronken (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
5th • 5-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Josh Jones (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tre Winika (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Elliott Nichols (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
90:10
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marie Watson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 91:9
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Ross Newson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Ryan Williams (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 90% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jaden De-Arth (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joshua Wellington (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 55:45
90:10
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matt Arnold (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 91:9
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Patrick Darge (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 90% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mitch Winter (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 2: Loss vs Seb Hart (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Smith (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36
Round 4: Loss vs Ross Newson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.