FaB-Results

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at National Championship 2026 - New Zealand

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Vincent Gardiner
39th • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.4
Diff
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dexter Rei-Maynard (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56
Fai, Rising Rebellion
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Adam Little (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 30:70
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Josh Jones (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64
Dorinthea Ironsong
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jesse Potini (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Michael Day (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Arakni, Marionette
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Ryan McIntyre (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Quazi Tahmeedzaman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38
Mitch Winter
46th • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.5
Diff
Valda, Seismic Impact
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Taylah Wells (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Marshall (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Jarl Vetreiði
!!
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ryan Rinsma (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
Dash I/O
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sam Davison (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Zak Murray (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Matthew Lester (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Tre Winika (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.