Battle Hardened: Portland 2026 - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Thor Hoffman

10th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tristin Sedlacek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zyrone Powell (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lauren Zacharakis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sadat Minick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs May Hayden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.22
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.17
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.70
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Matthew Harris

12th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Abtin RAVANIPOUR (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Will Prater (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Victor Marquez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Catherine Levine (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.75
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Jarik Caisse

20th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mark Shanafelt (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 79:21

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Josh Bibb (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tristin Sedlacek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Spencer Heaps (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 79:21

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Charlton Smith ()

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.06
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.29
R6	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Sean Judd

21st • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Sarraf (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jason Frye (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sean Cowan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dana Martin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.75
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.27

Sadat Minick

24th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Holly Benton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jason Frye (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Hamilton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nate Davis (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.41
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Tim Chambers

25th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs aiden anable (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sung Kang (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kaden Schoonover (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Josh Bibb (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Revlis Go (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.19
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.62
R6	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Justin Schrudder

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Frye (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jon Cardenas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs sean Burke (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.