FaB-Results

Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened: Portland 2026

Arakni, Marionette

Arakni, Marionette

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Thor Hoffman
10th • 4-2-0
33%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.9
Diff
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
!
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Dash I/O
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tristin Sedlacek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
Marlynn, Treasure Hunter
95:5
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Zyrone Powell (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 93:7
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lauren Zacharakis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
Arakni, Marionette
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Sadat Minick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs May Hayden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
Matthew Harris
12th • 4-2-0
83%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.9
Diff
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Abtin RAVANIPOUR (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Will Prater (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52
Jarl Vetreiði
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Victor Marquez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Catherine Levine (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
Jarik Caisse
20th • 4-2-0
83%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.3
Diff
Marlynn, Treasure Hunter
95:5
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mark Shanafelt (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 93:7
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Josh Bibb (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30
Dash I/O
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tristin Sedlacek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
Jarl Vetreiði
!
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Marlynn, Treasure Hunter
95:5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Spencer Heaps (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 93:7
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Charlton Smith ()
Sean Judd
21st • 4-2-0
83%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
2.0
Diff
Kayo, Underhanded Cheat
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Sarraf (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
!
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Dorinthea Ironsong
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jason Frye (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Sean Cowan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Prism, Awakener of Sol
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Dana Martin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 49:51
Sadat Minick
24th • 3-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Holly Benton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
Dorinthea Ironsong
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jason Frye (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
!!
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alex Hamilton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nate Davis (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Arakni, Marionette
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Jarl Vetreiði
!
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Tim Chambers
25th • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.9
Diff
Dash I/O
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs aiden anable (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Fang, Dracai of Blades
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sung Kang (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 70:30
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kaden Schoonover (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Josh Bibb (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30
Kayo, Underhanded Cheat
!
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Revlis Go (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Justin Schrudder
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
Dorinthea Ironsong
!!
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jason Frye (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jon Cardenas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Fang, Dracai of Blades
!!
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs sean Burke (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.