Dash I/O at Battle Hardened: Portland 2026

Dash I/O

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tristin Sedlacek

14th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jon Cardenas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jarik Caisse (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Luke Putz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs sean Burke (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.53

Alexander Burnett

35th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eric Norris (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kaden Schoonover (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Josh Bibb (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Catherine Levine (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jaina Benton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Cary Young (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.55
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.82

aiden anable

51st • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Chambers (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle James (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Will Prater (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Victor Marquez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mark Shanafelt (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R6	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.