Battle Hardened: Portland 2026 - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Luke Putz

5th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None ()

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sung Kang (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andre Judd (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Abtin RAVANIPOUR (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tristin Sedlacek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Eric Norris (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.21
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.48
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Eric Norris

13th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Burnett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeffrey Ouellette (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ben Platt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andre Judd (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Luke Putz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.74
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.48
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lauren Zacharakis

32nd • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cory Hill (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs nathan ericksen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Sarraf (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andre Judd (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.07
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.12

george flete

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zyrone Powell (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.