Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Battle Hardened

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andre Judd

40th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ben Platt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Putz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Norris (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eris Henry (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lauren Zacharakis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Troy Benton

46th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eris Henry (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Revlis Go (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Fraser (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ben Platt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jon Cardenas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jaina Benton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Holly Benton

53rd • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs May Hayden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Sarraf (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Victor Marquez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Will Prater (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

nathan ericksen

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs May Hayden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lauren Zacharakis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kyle James (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Revlis Go (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.11
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.