Battle Hardened: Portland 2026 - Oscilio, Constella Intelligence (CC)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andre Judd

40th • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ben Platt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Putz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Norris (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eris Henry (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lauren Zacharakis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Troy Benton

46th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eris Henry (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Revlis Go (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Fraser (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ben Platt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jon Cardenas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jaina Benton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.25
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Holly Benton

53rd • 1-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs May Hayden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Sarraf (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Victor Marquez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Will Prater (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

nathan ericksen

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs May Hayden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lauren Zacharakis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kyle James (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Revlis Go (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.15
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.