Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at Battle Hardened

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michael Feng

1st • 8-1-0

78%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle James (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eris Henry (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alex Hamilton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Luke Putz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Corwin Benton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jude Cornett (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.11
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.14
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.60
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.45
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.42
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.12
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.55

May Hayden

5th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs nathan ericksen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Holly Benton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs William Donnelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sean Cowan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Clements (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.54
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.47
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.31
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.39
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.58
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Tyler Kearney

19th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Victor Marquez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tracy Reeves (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sean Judd (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kaden Schoonover (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kyle James (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.45
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

AUSTIN BRILL

29th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs george flete (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Charlton Smith ()

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs aiden anable (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Neet (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jon Cardenas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R3	CC		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.68
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.46
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Tracy Reeves

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Revlis Go (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 66:34

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Abtin RAVANIPOUR (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.