Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Battle Hardened: Portland 2026

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Abtin RAVANIPOUR

5th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tracy Reeves (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Clements (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luke Putz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.62
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.06
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Darius Zacharakis

33rd • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Spencer Heaps (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andre Judd (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dana Martin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

10:90

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Revlis Go (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 10:90

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Josh Bibb (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Will Prater

52nd • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs aiden anable (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Holly Benton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs William Donnelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.71
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.