Battle Hardened: Portland 2026 - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Raj Giri

17th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Trevor Valentine (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dana Martin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Charlton Smith ()

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alex Hamilton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.26

William Donnelly

37th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Trevor Valentine (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs May Hayden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zyrone Powell (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jason Frye (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Will Prater (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.37

Trevor Valentine

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Raj Giri (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William Donnelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.