Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened: Portland 2026
Dorinthea Ironsong
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
49th • 1-5-0
17%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Justin Schrudder (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sean Judd (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs David Sarraf (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs William Donnelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.