Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Battle Hardened: Portland 2026
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
41st • 2-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
0.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Victor Marquez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jacob Neet (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Charlton Smith ()
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ben Platt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | 50% | Loss | |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.