Chane at Battle Hardened: Columbus 2026

Chane

17 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mara Faris

5th • 6-1-0

71%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Josh Gavin (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Phillip Spader (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dayton Smallwood (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matt Muus (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Caleb Jansen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.65
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.66
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Michael Godfrey

5th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs McKenna Cleveland (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs John Milner (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Caleb Jansen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Abigail Welday (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Connor Bryant (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Logan Zarnick (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Cubi Nguyen (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.45
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sebastiano Cavallo

10th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Roberts (Rhinar) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Lau (Rhinar) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Clements (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Logan Zarnick (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Cooper Templeton (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.58

Michael Hamilton

15th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Pelley (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Josh Gavin (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Luis Maderas (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matt Muus (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Justin Anthony (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Jacob Clements

19th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tree Garman (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alan Chavarin (Rhinar) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Philip Stolze (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Justin Anthony (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Michaud (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.91
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Jon Mann

22nd • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Egbert (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Josh Gavin (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Luis Maderas (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jo Burch (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mel Falcon (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Illuvial Arnett

24th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Roberts (Rhinar) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Mel Falcon (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Mel Falcon

29th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Crabtree (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Miller (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs JT Bruhn (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Lau (Rhinar) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Patrick Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jon Mann (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matt Muus

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Grimm (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Leimenstoll (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ty Hicks (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Cubi Nguyen (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mara Faris (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nathan Burns

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Christian Ybarra (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matt Brehm (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dan Groseclose (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.46
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.62
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Jacob Baugh

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Kelly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dayton Smallwood (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Illuvial Arnett (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Victor Mercado

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matt Brehm (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Leimenstoll (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.28
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.61
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Zak Miller

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cody Williams (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Justin Anthony (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Miller (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Caleb Jansen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Vince Biamonte

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Case (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Josh Perry (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Brehm (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Brian Lorenz

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Josh Norton (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alan Chavarin (Rhinar) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Holden Isaacs

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jo Burch (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tree Garman (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nathaniel Lansangan

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Cody Williams (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.