Rhinar at Battle Hardened: Columbus 2026

Rhinar

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonah Overholt

18th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ian Cannon (Terra) - Expected: 67:33

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christian Ybarra (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Oldhim) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Dan Groseclose (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.64
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Corey Frascati-Robinson

23rd • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Josh Franks (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs JT Bruhn (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jo Burch (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Chane) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Joshua Crabtree (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 29:71

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Phillip Pelley (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.91
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.49

Charlie LaPan

27th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs JT Bruhn (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs David Cleveland (Kayo) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ryu San jose (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Colin Turner (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alan Chavarin (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.27
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Alan Chavarin

28th • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs AVERY LARRICK (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Chane) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Chane) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gil Beloate (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Caleb Jansen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Terra) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Charlie LaPan (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Chane	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.68
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.85
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Silver Age	Terra	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patrick Roberts

35th • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Chane) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Juan Pineda (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Chane) - Expected: 33:67

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Meadows (Fai) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Lau (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs JT Bruhn (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Chane	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joshua Lau

36th • 2-5-0

29%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Chane) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mel Falcon (Chane) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Phillip Pelley (Briar) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Roberts (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs McKenna Cleveland (Briar) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Chane	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.49

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.